EuroBasket 2022: Spain vs Finland basketball prediction and betting tips (September 13)
Spain have won all H2H matches against Finland in regular time. Do Finland have a chance to stop the domination of their rivals?
Lauri Markkanen was the best player in this match.
Lauri Markkanen was the best player in this match.
by Alex Weaver Alex Weaver

The Spain vs Finland fixture in the quarter-final of the 2022 EuroBasket will take place on Tuesday, 13 September 2022, starting at 3:45 p.m. GMT. The venue is Mercedes-Benz Arena, Berlin.

Latest odds on betting sites

Spain are priced with the odds of 1.35 (-286 American; 7/20 Fractional) to win, which equals an approximate probability of 67%. Finland come with the odds of 3.00 (+300; 3/1) to win this match. The chances of their victory are around 33%.

The latest odds for Spain vs Finland (September 13):

  • Over 163.5 points — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Under 163.5 points — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Asian handicap (+6.5) points on Finland — 1.85 (-117; 17/20)
  • Asian handicap (-6.5) points on Spain — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
  • Over 29.5 points by Lauri Markkanen — 1.75 (-133; 3/4)
  • Over 16.5 points by Willy Hernangomez — 2.00 (+100; 1/1)

Match preview and statistics

Spain won over Lithuania (102-94 OT) in the 1/8 finals of the play-offs.

Spain finished the first three quarters with a five-point gap, but they came back in the last quarter by finishing it with a 20-15 score in their favor. La Roja made 75 shots with 33 on target to receive 102 points in this match. They converted approximately 91% of one-point shots, but were worse than their rivals on two and three-point shots with 59% and 23% accuracy, respectively.

Lorenzo Brown was the best player on his team. He scored 28 points, made eight assists and completed three rebounds to finish the match with +28 efficiency. Juancho Hernangomez and Willy Hernangomez scored 21 and 13 points in this match, respectively.

A total of under 163.5 points has played out in four of the last five matches with Spain participating. The same total comes with the odds of 1.90 (-111; 9/10) in this fixture.

Finland pulled Croatia (94-86) down in the most recent fixture.

Finland won the second and the fourth quarters of this match. They played aggressively and finished successfully 36 out of 74 shots in this match. The teams controlled the ball approximately equally. Both teams completed 18 assists and one block shot each. Finland and Spain completed 31 and 32 rebounds, respectively. The Wolf Pack made three more interceptions than their rivals.

Lauri Markkanen was the best player in this match. He scored 43 points, whereas the second best player in the match finished it with 23 points. Also, Markkanen completed nine rebounds and made three assists. Sasu Salin and Edon Maxhuni were the second and the third best scorers for Finland with 17 and 16 points.

Finland have lost the first half in one of the last eight matches. Double chance – X2 is priced with the odds of 2.25 (+125; 5/4) in this game.

Spain vs Finland H2H

Spain destroyed Finland (82-56) in the Round 2 of the 2013 EuroBasket. They won all four quarters in this match to finish the match in their favor.

Also, Spain won over Finland (87-74) in the 1995 EuroBasket, which was their first H2H fixture.

Lineups and key players

Spain projected lineup:

  • Point guard: Lorenzo Brown
  • Shooting guard: Dario Brizuela
  • Small forward: Rudy Fernandez
  • Power forward: Juancho Hernangomez
  • Center: Willy Hernangomez

Lorenzo Brown is the key player to watch out for. He finished the last match with a +28 efficiency. He has scored 84 points in the 2022 EuroBasket.

Finland projected lineup:

  • Point guard: Edon Maxhuni
  • Shooting guard: Sasu Salin
  • Small forward: Elias Valtonen
  • Power forward: Lauri Markkanen
  • Center: Alexander Madsen

Lauri Markkanen absolutely dominated in the most recent match. He finished it with 43 points, nine rebounds, three assists and three steals. In this tournament, he has scored approximately 28 shots per match.

Prediction and betting tips

Spain have won seven of the last eight matches with six in the regular time. They have lost only one match in this tournament, but this fixture was against Belgium. They lost three out of four quarters in spite of the fact that Belgium are much weaker at the moment. Sergio Scariolo’s men won all H2H matches against Finland, but their last H2H game was played nine years ago.

Finland have lost two fixtures in the group stage with one in the overtimes with a two-point difference. In the 2022 EuroBasket, Finland have not met strong rivals apart from Serbia. In that match, Finland were defeated with a 70-100 score.

Lauri Markkanen is an absolute star of his team. He scored 167 points in six matches of the 2022 Eurobasket and finished the most recent match with 43 points. However, I believe that Spain’s defence will stop his strongest rival. Only one player has received more than 20 points against Spain in the last nine matches. Under 29.5 points by Lauri Markkanen. Also, Spain is more likely to qualify for the next stage. This outcome looks safe too.

Betting prediction: Under 29.5 points by Lauri Markkanen

Odds: 2.00 (+100 American; 1/1 Fractional)

Betting prediction: Spain to win

Odds: 1.35 (-286 American; 7/20 Fractional)

Basketball. Quarter-final
Spain — Finland
Under 29.5 points by Lauri Markkanen
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